You can't blame Brexit

Rachel Reeves recently "outed" Brexit. At an investment summit in Birmingham she said “The Office for Budget Responsibility do the forecasts for the economy. When we left the European Union, or when we voted to leave, they made an estimate about the impact that would have. What they’ve done this summer is go back to all of their forecasts and look at what actually happened compared to what they forecast. What that shows – and what they will set out – is that the economy has been weaker and productivity has been weaker than they forecast, despite the fact that they forecast that the economy would be weaker because of leaving the EU."

So are you saying there's nothing we can do about it? That Brexit has made us worse off and we just have to suck it up?

That's dishonest. If you say - and believe - that a Brexit Britain is intrinsically poorer than a not-Brexit Britain, isn't the logical thing to do something about that? Isn't it possible that proposing reuniting with the EU, or some aspect of that such as re-joining the Customs Union, could completely change the prospects of a left of centre government/coalition defeating the forces of the right at the next election? Could Labour really be bold enough to say "it hasn't worked so we need to reverse the referendum decision" as the central plank of their 2029 election campaign? I recently posted about rolling referendums or at least some clarity on repeat referendums but I'm not proposing a referendum. My proposal would be that a single issue "unBrexit" election would have exactly the same decisive effect as the 2019 Brexit election: a sea change.

I'm not saying any of that would be easy and I'm not saying that I believe it is the right thing to do. I'm just saying that political thought at the moment in the UK is dominated by the populist agenda and there is no counter-insurgency. The "centre ground" has become muddied by the belief that you have to fight populism on its own turf; maybe switching to a proactive, visionary approach could be more effective.

Could it work? Would the EU even want us back? Who knows. But it would be a clear differentiator which voters could understand as a positive vision for the future of the country. It could be a "dead cat" moment [no offence to cats] which distracts voters from the "mess" they think the country is in. Politically for Labour, it would establish clear water between them and Reform/Tory and would go some way towards negating pressure from the LibDems/Greens/nationalists ("we are the only de-Brexit party who can actually make it happen").

Does Labour even have a Boris figure who could make it happen? Not sure. Suggestions?

How long between referenda?

We in the UK don't have much of a tradition of referendums, and we don't have a written constitution, so to the question of "should the Scots have another independence referendum?" or "should we re-run Brexit?", our politicians simply shrug and carry on as usual.

But is that really good enough? Both of those examples proved to be marginal decisions and circumstances change. But equally you can't just change your mind as a nation every few years; that would make long-term policy making impossible.

In the absence of a written constitution, our Great British Tradition of Keep Buggering On comes into play: kick the ball into the long grass (for the uninitiated, this is something Donald Trump does to his opponents at golf): too difficult, file it under Virtually Impossible and focus on more urgent matters. But perhaps the biggest problem in British politics is short term thinking.

If my main complaint about the above two referendums is the narrow victory margin, it seems logical that I can't justify a re-run if the margins remain narrow, even if in the other direction.

The biggest problems with both issues is that they were driven by fanatical ideology; maybe we shouldn't allow fanaticism to define our future.

My solution to this problem is:

• set a future date for a repeat of each referendum, perhaps 25 years hence (how's that for long grass?)
• subject to certain criteria being met, those criteria being measures of support in the relevant electorate for the poll; for instance in Scotland a 75% majority in the Scottish parliament for a party whose manifesto for the election for that parliament specifically included an independence commitment. Similarly, if parties with a specific manifesto commitment to rejoin the European Union were to, between them, get 75% of the seats (or perhaps 75% of the votes) in a UK General Election
• Once a referendum has been thus initiated and completed, whatever the outcome, the clock would be reset for a further 25 years
• These rules to be set in stone in a law, with a provision that the law would require a 75% majority vote in both Houses of Parliament to overturn it

What do you think, dear readers? Would you like a constitutional convention to consider these proposals? To plan effectively for the long-term future? Or would you prefer us to Keep Buggering On?

Singalong to Brexit

Where has all the Brexit gone, long time passing?
Where has all the Brexit gone, long time ago?
Where has all the Brexit gone?
Old white men have chosen it
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the young hopes gone, long time passing?
Where have all the young hopes gone, long time ago?
Where have all the young hopes gone?
Gone for young guys everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the Germans gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Spanish gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Polish gone?
Gone with Belgians everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the Blairites gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Cam'rons gone, long time ago?
Where have all the LibDems gone?
Gone to Europe, everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where has Nigel Farage gone, long time passing?
Where has Boris Johnson gone, long time ago?
Where has Dom'nic Cummings gone?
Celebrating, everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Acknowledgements to Dan, who reminded me Brexit still exists, and apologies to the late Pete Seeger. And not wishing to demean the spirit of the original.