Did you get hugged today?

Today is International Hugging Day. It started in the US as National Hugging Day in 1986. I guess they have a lot to hug about today but pandemic protocols might put dampeners on it.

Hugging Days are now celebrated in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Canada, Australia, Greece, the Scandinavian countries and, of course, the UK. Although it's not something we celebrate in Cornwall, as far as I know. Do I need to get permission from my neighbours? I'm quite surprised they don't have Hugging Days in France and Italy; I'd have thought it's right up their streets. Although maybe Bottom Pinching Day in Italy [That's enough national stereotyping for now, Nigel]. Check out this interview with a "hugging therapist and cuddle practitioner":

Not sure we should be encouraging hugging at the moment, Helen. Plenty of footballers getting into trouble for mass hugging when a goal is scored. Has Boris given you permission?

They seem to like celebratory days in the US. Today, 21 January, is also Women’s Healthy Weight Day, Squirrel Appreciation Day and International Sweatpants Day. I have this vision of healthy women in sweatpants observing squirrels.

Ah, how sweet. No, you're not getting pictures of healthy women in sweatpants.

In Poland, 21 January is Grandmother's Day. If you live in Poland, you can wish your Babcia "Happy Grandmother's Day" with this short poem (If you're not in Poland, you can skip to the next paragraph):

Czy wiesz moja Babciu kochana,
Że w myślach moich jesteś od rana?
Gdy sen z moich oczu zmywałam,
O życzeniach dla Ciebie myślałam.
Szukałam dla Ciebie czegoś cennego,
Aż w końcu znalazłam coś bardzo drogiego.
Płomień miłości Ci ofiaruję,
Bo tego ludziom ciągle brakuje.
Chcę abyś wiecznie szczęśliwa była,
I sto wiosenek w zdrowiu przeżyła.

That's it for today but, to save me some posts over the next few days, I can let you know that 22 January is Hot Sauce Day and 23 January is Handwriting Day. Grandkids, take note. Polish grandkids, take two notes. Three if your pierogi are served with hot sauce.

Flagpole sitta

Flagpole Sitta is a song by an American band Harvey Danger. In all honesty, it's not a great song. And I'm not enamoured with their sound but I came across a quote from the song:

...if you're bored then you're boring

I've definitely been bored at times over the last four months - no pub, no coffee shop, no full English breakfast, no grandkids - and that's why I started blogging. So that I would be less bored. Am I therefore boring? I worry about that now, although there is certainly a case for saying that the lyrics of rock songs are often ridiculous (rather like opera, now I come to think of it) and shouldn't be taken seriously.

But I take everything I come across seriously so I thought I'd explore literature of various kinds to see what others had to say about boredom.

Before that, I should tell you - because you are fellow explorers and will insist on knowing - that Harvey Danger were an alternative rock band. I don't know what that means; their music sounds punkish to me but there are (younger) members of my family who would know better than I. Flagpole Sitta was used as the theme tune for a British sitcom called Peep Show. Never heard of that either. But, as with everything, you can check out this song on YouTube.

OK, that's out of the way, added to my knowledge of life, the universe and everything but almost certainly never to be revisited. Although one day it might be useful in a pub quiz.

[Ed: NIgel, so far you are demonstrating exactly Harvey's point]

The American novelist Zelda Fitzgerald gives us this:

“She refused to be bored chiefly because she wasn't boring.”

Which actually is not dissimilar to Harvey's line.

The comedian Louis C. K. tells us:

“I’m bored’ is a useless thing to say. I mean, you live in a great, big, vast world that you’ve seen none percent of. Even the inside of your own mind is endless; it goes on forever, inwardly, do you understand? The fact that you’re alive is amazing, so you don’t get to say ‘I’m bored.”

OK C. K., I'm sorry I said it. Forgive.

Another American novelist Maria Semple has a rather worrying take on it:

“That's right,' she told the girls. 'You are bored. And I'm going to let you in on a little secret about life. You think it's boring now? Well, it only gets more boring."

Albert Camus is also in negative mode:

“The truth is that everyone is bored, and devotes himself to cultivating habits.”

But I'm going to finish on a positive note, from Susan Cain:

“...I also believe that introversion is my greatest strength. I have such a strong inner life that I’m never bored and only occasionally lonely. No matter what mayhem is happening around me, I know I can always turn inward.”

Ah now, that's definitely me. Always seeking the inner truths. And you, dear reader, if you've got this far in this ramble, you are definitely not boring.

Harvey, you're wrong.

R

If I have 2 children, they each have 2, those 2 have 2 and so on, how many generations of Grants will there be before the Grant population reaches one million? I believe the answer is 20; 2 to the power 20 = 1,048,576. So that's about 600 years.

If I have 3 children, they each have 3, those 3 have 3 and so on, how many generations of Grants will there be before the Grant population reaches one million? Now it's only 13 generations; 400 years.

So I've been slacking, and my grandkids need to sharpen up if we are to get there any time soon.

Obviously this assumes we are all still around to enjoy our millionth family member. So maybe a bit flawed.

But if ten people re-tweet one of Donald Trump's tweets, and so on, how long would it take for everyone in the USA to have read the tweet? There are just under 400 million people in the US, so just 9 iterations of the power of ten are needed; that could be just 9 days! Add one more day and the  whole world has seen it! Such is the power of social media that attracts the attention of demagogues and advertising executives.

Now, if 2 people read my blog and only one of them recommends it to someone else and so on, how long will it take for there to be no readers? Given that there is no such thing as half a person, very quickly. However, if I publish a second post and the original readers (so enthralled by the original post) each recommend it to one different person, then the readership expands at...some rate or other (my A Level Maths is pretty rusty now). In my case, quality is paramount; in Trump's case, quantity is everything.

The reproduction rate (R) matters in the case of COVID-19 and other viruses. The PM told us last Sunday that R was estimated at that time to be between 0.5 and 0.9. This in itself is not very helpful, given that 0.5 (my pessimistic blog R above) would eradicate the virus in the UK in 16 months, statistically, whereas a rate of 0.9 would take over 8 years.

Note the word "estimate". How do you know that one person with the virus will infect, on average, say 0.75 people? In short, "know" is the wrong word. You would only "know" if you tested every person in the country every day. However, mathematicians will use sample data to give estimates for the whole population so contact tracing, which has apparently been very successful in some Asian countries, can give good quality data. If you identify 1,000 people who have the virus and trace all of their recent contacts and test those, you will in fact have a good idea of the reproduction rate.

There are, of course, many problems with this. For us in the UK, the lack of effective contact tracing is undoubtedly problematic; perhaps the imminent use of a contact tracing app will help, perhaps it won't. I'll certainly give it a try. One of the most significant problems may be that R may be higher in highly dense city populations, e.g. New York, than in isolated rural communities. So the government has talked about the possibility of different rates of relieving the lockdown in, say, Cornwall and in London.

But at the moment there are pressures for easing the lockdown protocols for such as schools and businesses - for different reasons. Evidence is presented to politicians regarding the effects of this easing but no-one will really know what will happen until it happens. I would be more comfortable about schools resuming if there were widespread tests for both teachers and pupils. As the head of the World Health organisation said back in March, 'Our key message is: test, test, test'. I'm not sure we listened soon enough.

If we are doing 100,000 tests a day on average, how long before the whole population of the UK has been tested? Nearly two years. And the test results will be out of date after a day, so the only answer would be test everyone every day. Is that practicable? Why not? In any case, start with schoolkids.