The Conservative party in the UK has a single purpose: to gain, and hold on to, power. Without power, the party cannot pursue its fundamental ideologies: small government, sound national finances, free market economics and the like. The only other UK political party that comes anywhere close in terms of the ruthless lust for power are the Scottish Nationalists, whose almost single issue ideology means they need power in order to create the circumstances in which Scotland can secede from the United Kingdom.
In order to gain and regain power, the Conservatives play what they believe to be their strong cards: law and order provides a safe society, strong security provides a safe country, control of public finances and critically "don't rock the boat with risky projects". Most of all, they elect a leader who can win elections. Deviate from those tried and tested parameters and they lose elections. Check out the titles of recent Conservative party manifestos:
2017 Theresa May: "Forward, Together: Our Plan for a Stronger Britain and a Prosperous Future". WIN
2015 David Cameron: "Strong Leadership. A Clear Economic Plan. A Brighter, More Secure Future." WIN
2006 Michael Howard: "Are You Thinking What We're Thinking?" LOSS [Is this the worst political slogan ever?]
2001 William Hague: "Time for Common Sense". LOSS
(I'm ignoring "Get Brexit Done" in 2019, as a special case)
In 2019, the party elected Boris Johnson as leader - the candidate who could win an election - over Jeremy Hunt - the candidate who would probably have created and led a more effective government. (Again, Brexit was a strong issue which can't be ignored).
And so to the Labour Party. How to return to power? Rather than wait for the current government to implode, Labour needs a plan; one which:
- represents its ideologies
- plays their strong cards
- acknowledges the fundamental requirements of any government
- envisages a leader who can win an election.
The closest Labour has come to winning an election recently was in 2017 when Jeremy Corbyn, with his "For the Many, Not the Few" manifesto, almost toppled Theresa May. That manifesto met probably just two of the above requirements.
Labour's ideologies are based on fairness: the redistribution of wealth, opportunity for all, government using its economic power to serve the disadvantaged, internationalism.
Their strong cards include vigorous public services, the limitations of unfettered capitalism, empathy with the disadvantaged and vulnerable.
Labour is traditionally characterised as being weak on law and order, strong national and international security and economic competence. These are areas which need to be addressed. Ruthlessness would dictate that the shadow ministers for these areas need to be the best thinkers, reformers and performers. Politicians who can drive policy and can consistently defeat and deride their opposite numbers in the Cabinet. Let's see who we have here:
- shadow home secretary (shadowing Home Secretary Priti Patel): Nick Thomas-Symonds. No offence Nick, but you are too invisible. Patel is one of the Government's worst ministers, she should have been sacked over bullying civil servants, her immigration policies are repulsive and ineffectual and you need to be out there with humane and workable policies and challenging her every step of the way. No holds barred.
- shadow foreign secretary (shadowing Foreign Secretary LIz Truss, who has only been in post for a few weeks so it's not really possible to judge her yet): Lisa Nandy, whose background in women's and children's issues closely matches that of Truss; both of them seem ill suited to the roles they have been given. Maybe foreign affairs, post Brexit, is not the big brief it used to be.
- shadow defence secretary (shadowing Defence Secretary Ben Wallace): John Healey. Wallace is a military man with service in Northern Ireland, Germany, Cyprus and Central America. Healey is a career politician with stints in finance, local government and housing. No offence John but this is a mis-match
- shadow chancellor (shadowing Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak): Rachel Reeves has a strong background in finance and is a strong performer in public and the House of Commons. She gets out and about, meeting people and promoting her ideas on the green economy and high street regeneration. She gives as good as she gets at the dispatch box. A square peg in a square hole.
As for an electable and trusted leader, it's not clear yet - in my opinion - whether Keir Starmer satisfies those requirements. He is still the "not Corbyn" leader, with a large part of the party relieved to be rid of the uncertainties of the previous incumbent. This selection of key shadow cabinet posts suggests to me that Starmer wants his "team" to be nice. I'm not sure of the team thing - I'd go for strong individual performers who feel empowered by the leader to develop strong policies, promote them and challenge their opponents - and in politics "nice" gets you nowhere, frankly.
Starmer's main "attack dog" is Angela Rayner. I'm an unashamed admirer of her. She speaks to "the people" and her back story resonates with those people. An authentic politician, she clearly isn't in the Starmer mould and I'm disappointed he doesn't appear to value her. Is she best utilised as a roving rottweiler, spearing the Prime Minister and his party on corruption? For the moment, she probably does that better than anyone but I think there's a case for giving her a heavyweight shadow ministerial brief such as opposing Priti Patel. Now I'd pay for a ringside seat to that. But please, Sir Keir, don't sideline her and don't hope she'll go away. You have a weak and inexperienced team and she is a big asset.
If Rayner were moved to shadow home secretary, I'd go for Emily Thornberry as the "roving attack dog". She's wasted and invisible at International Trade and she has no experience in that.
There is much to be done to get Labour into a shape to present as a government in waiting. I believe the biggest problem is visibility. All opposition parties suffer from this but somehow the players need to make their voices heard. Do they really believe in themselves? Starmer, of course, has to do without experienced Labour politicians who have "retired" to Mayoralties (Sadiq Khan, Andy Burnham) and Select Committee Chairs (Yvette Cooper, Hilary Benn).
I've said nothing about policy. I have views on that and they will perhaps appear in due course. Meanwhile, Starmer is an inexperienced leader with an inexperienced team, they need to learn quickly. Let's hope there won't be a snap election before 2024.