1 in 13

1 in 13 people (adults? not sure) in England now have covid. Which is the same ratio of people wearing masks in the crowded indoor Exeter services this morning. Connection? Who knows. tbh I no longer have any idea where or when I should wear a mask or, given I had my Spring Booster yesterday, what my chances of catching or surviving the virus are. Sore upper arm today. Three Pfizers previously and now a Moderna in my collection. The nurse explained the relative efficacy and sustainability of various vaccines but (a) I wasn't really listening and (b) it was the only option available anyway. 

We live on ... stay safe everyone.

Cosmic Girl

The Cornish are going to space!

Cosmic Girl is a modified Boeing 747-400, which will take off from Newquay Airport this summer, in the UK's first ever space launch. Under its wing will be LauncherOne, a Virgin Orbit rocket, with a payload of small satellites, which are used for tracking shipping and other (undisclosed) things. LauncherOne will be released at 35,000 feet and fire its booster to zoom the satellites into orbit.

The fact that the operations team includes the Ministry of Defence, the Border Force and the National Crime Agency leads us to suspect that the satellites may be above our heads but not necessarily above board. Rumours that the People's Front of Cornwall are planning a second launch, PeFroCorn, to track LauncherOne have not been denied. As have suggestions that one of the satellites will be in a geostationary orbit above an asylum seeker processing centre in Rwanda. And another that one of the satellites will be targetting [did I mean tracking?] vulnerable people crossing the  English Channel in small boats.

Cynicism aside, we should perhaps celebrate Cornwall's entry to the twenty first century - skipping the twentieth, obviously - and watch the skies this summer. Perhaps.

Ask the Swiss

The Swiss system. I'm trying to understand it. Invented by Julius Müller for a chess tournament in Zürich in 1895, it provides a (perhaps optimal) solution to the problem of having a number of competitors too large for them to all to play each other in the time available. I'm interested because UEFA's Champions League format from 2024-25 will use it.

There will be 36 teams competing in the Champions League and they will all be within one league table. Clearly it's not possible for all to play all, particularly as the tradition is to play home and away ties. Hence the Swiss system. In round 1 there is a completely random draw. In the second round, each team will play another team with a similar record. Thus if Real Madrid wins their first match, they will then play another of the first round winners in the second round. If they win again, they play another team that has two wins and so on. You can see how eventually all the teams get sorted by their results, the cream rising to the top and Tottenham Hotspur trending to last place. Just kidding, Spurs fans! You won't even be in it.

For 36 competitors, a number of matches around 10-12 will be deemed mathematically to be optimal: at that point the Champions League system will move the top 8, plus 8 more from playoff games, into the traditional knockout phases. It feels like a system designed to please everyone - traditionalists and radicals - although it's arguably also a solution in search of a problem.

I seem to remember playing something like this system in croquet tournaments. I'm told it is widely used in Scrabble. Wikipedia tells me the system is used for the selection of the English national pool team. [Who knew that even existed?] Also Pokémon championships. And the World Universities Debating Championship. And ... you get the gist; it's widespread. I'm not aware of any blogger tournaments though.

If you're playing in a chess tournament, where all players are gathered in the same venue at the same time, waiting to find out who your next opponent is is not a problem. For football teams, playing their matches in different countries, hundreds or thousands of miles apart, I think it's a major disadvantage for logistics such as travel for clubs and fans, interacting with domestic match schedules and so on. I guess there may will be a sense of "let's see how this works" in the first year.

I'll get back to you around Christmas time in 2024.

Unpredictable Humans

In the kind of computer games where you, the human player, compete against the computer's artificial intelligence (AI), you have a huge advantage: you're human. Humans are unpredictable, unlike the predictable AI. In Civilization VI, on the highest difficulty level - Deity - playing single player against computer (AI) opponents, you can still beat the AI even with the huge advantages they are given by the game. Defending your city against massed ranks of AI units, you can predict what they will do but you - the unpredictable human - can outwit them by doing something crazy. City nearly dead to an AI unit? Send out a builder to distract the unit; they will take the builder, I will then attack and they have gained a builder but lost the war. The AI doesn't think strategically.

Which is my problem with driverless cars. I was driving out of Tesco this morning, about to turn right. Being careful. Car approaching from the right. Signalling left, to go into Tesco. That's OK, I can go .... whoa! The other car is going straight on, not into Tesco! Still signalling. Screeching of brakes, near collision. OK, exaggerating a little. No actual collision although a few words exchanged. I assume that the driver wasn't aware that their indicator was still on but maybe it was just a last minute change of plan.

How would my (mythical) driverless Tesla deal with this unpredictable behaviour? I imagine the Tesla AI can see the flashing indicator and assess the probability of the car behaving as expected, i.e. turning left. Of course, my Tesla doesn't know whether the other car is also driverless - therefore predictable - or human. Therefore there is a knowledge gap, which is a problem for an AI. My guess is the Tesla would sit there waiting for a gap in the traffic. This is the ultimate safety play but this is Tesco, so it's possible that there's a long stream of traffic, all turning left and with their indicators on. Because they are human, some might not be indicating but still intend to turn left. We'll be there for ages.

Then there's the potential moral dilemma. I read a really interesting article on this on the BBC's Science Focus website, positing for instance the decision making a driver might have to go through in a situation where every possible decision will result in potential death but the lethalities are unequal - adults vs children, ten passengers vs one, others vs me. For humans the speed of the situation is too much for us and means we react purely on instinct, with decisions which will not be the same for all of us; we are unpredictable. But the driverless car AI can process all possible outcomes virtually instantaneously and make a 'moral' decision to pursue one (probable) outcome.

When driverless cars were first mooted, my reaction was "terrific, I can read a book while my car takes me safely and speedily to my destination". I still think that, but with one proviso - that all the other vehicles on that particular stretch of road - perhaps a specially built highway - are also driverless and (preferably) powered by the same software (or industry standard algorithms). While we are (for my lifetime and for decades after, I suspect) in a hybrid situation where some cars could be driven by predictable AI and others by unpredictable humans, I'm against the idea.

What do you think?

Onshore Wind Farms

I'd have one in my garden if I had room. A wind turbine. I most definitely would not have a mini nuclear reactor.

I read recently that the UK government's energy review might include a proposal for people willing to live within sight of a wind turbine to get reduced, or free, electricity. I'm up for that; where do I sign up? Many people (mostly Conservative MPs) regard them as unsightly [UK transport secretary Grant Schapps yesterday: "eyesores"] but I actually think they are rather elegant. If a wind turbine were a sculpture, we'd all admire the beautiful lines with their slow, soothing rotation. There are a couple close to the A390 near me and when I see them as I drive through, it lifts my spirits. Could I have one with built-in calming music, please? And in pale green.

Ed Miliband, shadow climate change secretary yesterday described onshore wind as the "cheapest power available" but the government has had a moratorium on it since 2015.

Whereas the UK's nuclear reactor builds in recent decades have been disastrous in terms of cost overruns and poor price deals, and a full-scale conventional reactor takes years to build, the prospect for small modular reactors (SMRs) to provide power cheaper and sooner is apparently promising.

Our country's energy policy is frankly a mess. I am viscerally against nuclear power, because of the potential for catastrophe

but maybe SMRs (which presumably, being smaller, are potentially less catastrophic) could persuade me that the trade-off in terms of viability vs safety is worth it. One thing we should never be doing, in my opinion, is outsourcing our infrastructure ownership or operation to foreign companies. Not just Russia and China but France too. And new energy generation sources are now urgent.

I'm still not having one anywhere near me, though.

Omens Good and Bad

The football World Cup will be held in Qatar in November and December this year. England are in a group with Iran, the USA and the winner of the European play off between Wales, Scotland and Ukraine - delayed, for obvious reasons, until at least June.

England play Iran on the opening day,  21 November. The last time that we played on the opening day was in 1966. And we all know who won the World Cup that year, don't we?

France however have their own omen. In the two World Cups that France have won (1998 and 2018), they were drawn into the same group as Denmark, whom they will meet in Group D. And three of the past six World Cup champions came out of Group C: France in 2018, Brazil in 2002 and France in 1998. That's good for Argentina, Mexico, Poland and Saudi Arabia.

At the draw the Iranians were proudly announced as "The Islamic Republic of Iran". The Americans, also in our (England's) group and the opponents in our second group match, were rather less proudly announced as "the  USA". You'd have thought that, given the possibility of meeting Iran, they would have stated "we are the Democratic Republic of the United States of America". Although that might be stretching it if Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2024.

England, of course, is not exactly a country, just a constituent nation of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. We don't enter a UK team because for grandiose historical reasons the four football federations of the UK nations comprise 50% of the The International Football Association Board (IFAB). Which makes the Welsh, Northern Irish and Scots feel more important in the football world than they actually are. We may well be reminded of this when England play their final group game against Wales, Scotland or Ukraine, who are competing in those delayed matches in June. Ukraine are the lowest ranking of these so, unless the UK government insists on giving the Ukrainians a three goal advantage in these matches (a cute variation on 'taking the knee' as 'giving the war-support goal'), we should end up playing one of the Home Nations. Letting Ukraine beat us might stop a war, playing Scotland may well start one.

Lest you feel like mocking the chances of any of these teams beating England, the USA are ranked 15th in the world, ahead of such luminaries as Croatia - who beat us in the semi finals of the last World Cup - and Sweden.They are also unbeaten in their two previous World Cup matches against England. So not mugs. Fortunately we won't be playing their women's team, who are World Champions. Iran are 21st, ahead of Japan, Poland and the Czechs. We are 5th.

It's a long time until November but something to look forward to. If we turn out to be the only team taking the knee, and win the tournament, then inevitable conclusions will be drawn by the hysterical British media. Don't worry, the tournament only lasts 4 weeks and then we - winners, plucky/unlucky losers and agnostics - can enjoy Christmas.