Shabs and Streets

This is not a post about football. Just thought I'd get that in before I lose half my audience. It's also not about chess. However, I have to start with a reference to a chess-playing footballer, otherwise you wouldn't understand the title. 

Eberichi Eze is a top class footballer who plays for England's best team - Arsenal - in the Premier League. He is also a competition-winning chess player. And his friends call him "Ebs".

Now you get it - the title refers to Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting. Get it?

Why am I talking about them? Because, in my opinion, the survival of the Labour Party as an electoral force may well depend on them. It's hard to know how Cabinet Ministers are performing; it's a complex job and most of the work they do is in the background but they are most often judged by their public performances. My (completely uninformed) instinct is that the Prime Minister has actually got the best people into these two key Cabinet posts. Solve the NHS and the Home Office/immigration problems and the rest is fluff. No-one cares about Gaza, Ukraine, football regulators, fiscal rules and the like when they vote. Get me a GP appointment, rapid cancer tests, shorter waiting lists, stop the boats, process asylum seekers quickly and fairly and....we'll vote for you. And just maybe the workforce will become more productive.

You might argue that economic issues like taxation levels and the price of food will carry huge weight but it just feels there's no quick fix; the economy will take longer than five years to get back on track. The same is probably true of housing: you almost certainly can't get enough houses built to meet the target of 1.5 million. Welfare entitlements/benefits is such a fraught issue that the politics vs economics will thwart real progress.

Then there's defence spending. No-one seriously believes the Russians are going to invade the UK (or that, if they did, their management of the country would be any worse than what we already have), so a target of spending 5% of GDP on nuclear missiles, aircraft carriers, drones and the like just seems to "working people" like a colossal waste of money which could better be spent on more urgent things.

I'm not saying the economy doesn't matter. I'm not saying security doesn't matter. I'm not saying you shouldn't at least try to solve the problems with housing and benefits. It's just that people matter and their lives are constrained by so many negatives at the moment that a few simple (I'm not saying easy) NHS and immigration solutions could make the world of difference to how the country feels. And if they feel better, there's at least a chance they'll vote for you.

So, Shabs and Streets, I'm with you. See it, say it, sort it.

You can't blame Brexit

Rachel Reeves recently "outed" Brexit. At an investment summit in Birmingham she said “The Office for Budget Responsibility do the forecasts for the economy. When we left the European Union, or when we voted to leave, they made an estimate about the impact that would have. What they’ve done this summer is go back to all of their forecasts and look at what actually happened compared to what they forecast. What that shows – and what they will set out – is that the economy has been weaker and productivity has been weaker than they forecast, despite the fact that they forecast that the economy would be weaker because of leaving the EU."

So are you saying there's nothing we can do about it? That Brexit has made us worse off and we just have to suck it up?

That's dishonest. If you say - and believe - that a Brexit Britain is intrinsically poorer than a not-Brexit Britain, isn't the logical thing to do something about that? Isn't it possible that proposing reuniting with the EU, or some aspect of that such as re-joining the Customs Union, could completely change the prospects of a left of centre government/coalition defeating the forces of the right at the next election? Could Labour really be bold enough to say "it hasn't worked so we need to reverse the referendum decision" as the central plank of their 2029 election campaign? I recently posted about rolling referendums or at least some clarity on repeat referendums but I'm not proposing a referendum. My proposal would be that a single issue "unBrexit" election would have exactly the same decisive effect as the 2019 Brexit election: a sea change.

I'm not saying any of that would be easy and I'm not saying that I believe it is the right thing to do. I'm just saying that political thought at the moment in the UK is dominated by the populist agenda and there is no counter-insurgency. The "centre ground" has become muddied by the belief that you have to fight populism on its own turf; maybe switching to a proactive, visionary approach could be more effective.

Could it work? Would the EU even want us back? Who knows. But it would be a clear differentiator which voters could understand as a positive vision for the future of the country. It could be a "dead cat" moment [no offence to cats] which distracts voters from the "mess" they think the country is in. Politically for Labour, it would establish clear water between them and Reform/Tory and would go some way towards negating pressure from the LibDems/Greens/nationalists ("we are the only de-Brexit party who can actually make it happen").

Does Labour even have a Boris figure who could make it happen? Not sure. Suggestions?

The Castle of Mey

The Castle of Mey. The solution to the King's problem.

The name of the problem is Andrew. Still a Prince, I believe. If I were the King (and I'm with Boris on this; it's a highly desirable life option) I'd be looking hard at where I would like him to live. Number one criterion is...as far away from me as possible. Hence the Castle of Mey, which is a few miles away from John o' Groats.700 miles away from London, only 200 from Norway.

The north of Scotland has a rich history with Norway so it's perfectly possible we could persuade Norway to annex that small portion of the north east coast of Scotland, in which case Andrew would be a Norway resident and they might even allow him to be extradited to the USA to give evidence in the Epstein/Maxwell investigation.

It should be easy to persuade Andrew of this. Large house? Tick - according to the Times it has 38 rooms including 15 bedrooms; not at all sure what he'd do with those but I'm guessing he would come up with some ideas. Grand living? Tick - it's a castle, for goodness sake. Title? You could call him King Of The North, which would have the additional advantage of annoying Andy Burnham. Two ticks.

Then there's the referendum. The next time there is one on Scottish independence, the King could legitimately campaign for the Yes camp, as "my brother is available to be your King". In which case, again, the extradition possibility comes into play.

You need to know how to play to people's egos, Charles.

Footy updates 2025/19

How did my forecasts fare this weekend? (And ChatGPT's)

Ipswich 1 West Brom 1 CGPT: 2-1 Result: 1-0
Only the second clean sheet of the season; that says everything. More needed

Hull 2 Charlton 1 CGPT: 2-1 Result: 1-1
A late equaliser for Charlton

Wycombe 1 Huddersfield 1 CGPT: 1-1 Result: 3-0
A very early red card for Huddersfield helps Wycombe further away from the relegation zone

Whitstable 2 Holmesdale 1 CGPT: 3-1 Result: 5-0 [attendance: 578]
2 goals for D Grant and 2 for 38yo Joe Healy (described on Wikipedia as a "former footballer")

Arsenal 2 Crystal Palace 1 CGPT: 3-0 Result: 1-0
The juggernaut rolls on

Everton 1 Tottenham 1 CGPT: 2-1 Result: 0-3

Impressive away form. 3rd in the table, 5 points behind the Gunners

Correct results: 2 out of 6 (ChatGPT: 3)

Correct scores: 0 out of 6 (ChatGPT: 0)

Match score this season so far: usedtobecroquetman 1 Chat GPT 2

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Upcoming midweek games (all EFL Cup 4th round):

Wycombe v Fulham

Arsenal v Brighton

Newcastle v Tottenham

Footy updates 2025/18

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Recent matches:

Snodland Town 1 Whitstable Town 5
Up to 2nd in the table

Ipswich 0 Charlton 3
Shocker. What has happened to Ipswich? And it's maybe Charlton who are promotion candidates

Arsenal 4 Atletico Madrid 0
Thrilling win against a tricky opponent

Monaco 0 Tottenham 0

Snoozefest

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My forecasts for this weekend: (and ChatGPT's):

Ipswich 1 West Brom 1 CGPT: 2-1

Hull 2 Charlton 1 CGPT: 2-1

Wycombe 1 Huddersfield 1 CGPT: 1-1

Whitstable 2 Holmesdale 1 CGPT: 3-1

Arsenal 2 Crystal Palace 1 CGPT: 3-0

Everton 1 Tottenham 1 CGPT: 2-1

Footy updates 2025/17

How did my forecasts fare this weekend? (And ChatGPT's)

Middlesbrough 1 Ipswich 1 CGPT: 1-1 Result: 2-1
Top of the table Middlesbrough show Ipswich that control trounces flair

Charlton 1 Sheffield Wednesday 0 CGPT: 1-2 Result: 2-1
Wednesday are a basket case; I'd expect ChatGPT to know that 

Blackpool 1 Wycombe 2  CGPT: 1-2 Result: 1-1
113th minute equaliser keeps the Chairboys out of the relegation zone

Erith & Belvedere 1  Whitstable Town 2  CGPT: 1-2 Result: 0-1
Up to 5th; games in hand 

Fulham 0 Arsenal 1 CGPT: 0-2 Result: 0-1
Top of the table 

Tottenham 2 Aston Villa 0  CGPT: 2-1 Result: 1-2
Bit of a shocker really; Spurs 6th 

Correct results: 3 out of 6 (ChatGPT: 2)

Correct scores: 1 out of 6 (ChatGPT: 0)

Match score this season so far: usedtobecroquetman 1 Chat GPT 1

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Upcoming midweek games:

Snodland Town v Whitstable Town 

Ipswich v Charlton 

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid 

Monaco v Tottenham