=INT(RAND()*10+1)

Along with a group of family and friends, I play a game called Footy Naps. Every week of the football season - which for some reason isn't 12 months of the year - we each select a match result, with the bookmakers' odds. It it loses, you lose one point; win and you get the odds. Last week I selected Sheffield United to beat Crystal Palace at odds of 2/1. If United had won, I'd have gained 2 points; they lost and so did I: -1 point.

Sounds easy, I hear you say. Not so. I laboured for many years thinking - as do most of the players - that I knew better than the odds setters - the bookies - and, with a bit of work each week, I could find a value 'bet'. You have no idea how dispiriting this can be; week after week, the bookies prove they know what they are talking about. Not every time obviously - otherwise they would go out of business - but more than me.

For the 2017/2018 season, I decided to change tack. I had to find a strategy which met three criteria: (1) it had to involve the absolute minimum of effort and time (2) the chosen match is ideally on TV (usually a given since by definition the away side will be one of the big hitters) (3) it had to be fun, meaning a general expectation of losing punctuated by the occasional big win and the resulting accolade from my fellow players of "wow Nigel, how did you do that?" I decided to choose the longest odds home selection in the Premier League each week. As there are only 20 teams in the Premier League and therefore only 10 matches, the selection takes about 30 seconds; check one. Isolating just one league and just home matches simply furnishes a minimalistic algorithm for my efforts. Outcome: I got my maiden win in the competition. And this match gave me the biggest win @ 18/1:

I watched the match on TV. Check two. It was stressful but hilarious and fun. Check three. For accuracy I should state that this was a FA Cup match; I have to adapt in weeks where there are no Premier League games (I'm still waiting for Gibraltar to get a 150/1 win in the dreaded international weeks).

Next season I adopted the same strategy and it was a disaster but in 2019/2020 I made a comeback with an even bigger win, once again courtesy of Manchester City:

A 22/1 win contributing to my clean sweep of season title, first half of season win and second half of season win.

Once again reverting to the mean, season 2020/2021 has been a disaster. Miles behind with only three match days to go, I thought I'd have a bit of a change and decided to use a randomisation process. I considered using the I Ching but that proved as far removed from my "minimum effort" principle as it is possible to be. So I just used some random number stuff in a spreadsheet.

=INT(RAND()*10+1) selects the match (values 1 through 10).

=INT(RAND()*3+1) selects the bet: home win, draw, away win (values 1 through 3).

Simples.

Hence the afore mentioned Sheffield United selection. That fact that I didn't win that particular nap doesn't invalidate the method. It hasn't been the best of seasons for me ...

... although I had the pleasure of playing alongside my sons. They can comment on their own best wins of the season; looking forward to that, boys.

I did have one spectacular win:

Aston Villa beat the Champions 7-2. Seven! Remarkable. And a 17/2 winning nap for me.

Process before outcome; sloth before vigour. Works for me.